Start of a Bull Market?
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have posted incredible gains in the last two weeks since matching their 1997 lows on March 9th 2009. This has been met with a great deal of optimism and the usual declarations of a bottom having been created. Unfortunately, these people seem to ignore the fact that we’ve barely matched the relatively short lived rally we saw from the end of November through the end of January! That’s right, the last time we saw a rally like this, the markets proceeded to give us their largest percentage losses of this bear market so far.
| Date | Dow 30 | Percent | Date | S&P 500 | Percent | Date | Nasdaq | Percent | ||
| 5/02/2008 | 13,058 | 5/19/2008 | 1,427 | 6/05/2008 | 2,550 | |||||
| 7/15/2008 | 10,963 | -16.04% | 7/15/2008 | 1,215 | -14.86% | 7/11/2008 | 2,213 | -13.22% | ||
| 8/11/2008 | 11,782 | 7.47% | 8/11/2008 | 1,305 | 7.41% | 8/14/2008 | 2,454 | 10.89% | ||
| 9/17/2008 | 10,610 | -9.95% | 9/17/2008 | 1,156 | -11.42% | 9/17/2008 | 2,099 | -14.47% | ||
| 9/19/2008 | 11,388 | 7.33% | 9/19/2008 | 1,255 | 8.56% | 9/19/2008 | 2,274 | 8.34% | ||
| 10/10/2008 | 8,451 | -25.79% | 10/10/2008 | 899 | -28.37% | 10/09/2008 | 1,645 | -27.66% | ||
| 10/13/2008 | 9,388 | 11.09% | 10/13/2008 | 1,003 | 11.57% | 10/13/2008 | 1,844 | 12.10% | ||
| 10/27/2008 | 8,176 | -12.91% | 10/27/2008 | 849 | -15.35% | 10/27/2008 | 1,506 | -18.33% | ||
| 11/4/2008 | 9,625 | 17.72% | 11/4/2008 | 1,006 | 18.49% | 11/4/2008 | 1,780 | 18.19% | ||
| 11/20/2008 | 7,552 | -21.54% | 11/20/2008 | 752 | -25.25% | 11/20/2008 | 1,316 | -26.07% | ||
| 1/2/2009 | 9,035 | 19.64% | 1/6/2009 | 935 | 24.34% | 1/6/2009 | 1,652 | 25.53% | ||
| 3/9/2009 | 6,547 | -27.54% | 3/9/2009 | 677 | -27.59% | 3/9/2009 | 1,269 | -23.18% | ||
| 3/26/2009 | 7,925 | 21.05% | 3/26/2009 | 823 | 23.04% | 3/26/2009 | 1,556 | 25.06% |
The reason this upsets me so much is that everyday investors are trying to figure out what to do with the tattered remains of their 401Ks, IRAs, 529s and the like. Meanwhile, so called experts are scaring them into once again thinking they’ve “missed the investment opportunity of a lifetime”.
Personally, I hear the arguments that much has changed since our last drubbing and just have to laugh. I mean, how many times have we been told that a government plan is ready to fix the financial system and restore lending? As if it is a lack of credit that is hurting the American consumer as opposed to a massive inflationary trend that household income hasn’t and can’t even come close to keeping up with.
If anything, this market seems primed to test and possibly crash through its lows as we add to our already insane debt burden. I find it amusing that Health Care Reform is deemed to be such an integral part of our economic recovery when the European countries we’re modeling it after are in even worse shape than we are!
Finally, with oil prices being manipulated higher by traders and possibly sovereign wealth funds how can a true recovery take hold? After all, even with historic builds in inventories Oil for April delivery settled 30% higher than February & March and over 50% higher than January. Add to that the reckless cap & trade carbon tax President Obama is proposing and families will be spending even more of the hard earned money on energy and energy related products.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, we need to restore the balance between take home wages and costs of living. As deflation seems to be a dirty word and appears just about impossible to bring about, it seems to me that the only way we can raise take home pay is by getting rid of unfair income taxes and replacing them with reasonable consumption taxes. In this incredible age of technology there has got to be a way to implement a sliding sales tax based on where an item falls on the luxury scale. I just don’t understand how anyone could think it is fair to tax someone on what they earn but not how they spend it!